Is Bitcoin Setting Up For The Next Run Up Or Is Rejection Coming?

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Bitcoin has been ranging for half of March into April in what looks like what could be a Wyckoff distribution pattern, which is simply a supply zone. This means that the price may be topping out in this range before what could be a pretty big drop in price. But, is bitcoin setting up for it’s next run up, or are we looking at rejection?

This Time Is Different

You hear this phrase all the time, but this time some things have happened that have not happened in previous cycles. One, the Bitcoin ETF situation. Wall Street is planting it’s flag in this cycle like never before with the introduction of the spot Bitcoin ETFs. What this means is that for every share of the ETF, the hedge funds managing them have to buy and sell BTC on the markets. This is creating a surge in volume like we have never seen.

The second big thing that makes this time different is that we have never cracked all time highs before the Bitcoin reward halving. The fact that we are already higher than the previous cycle top sends nothing but bullish chills down my spine as we inch closer and closer to that fundamental mining reward change that happens every 4 years. So yeah, this time is different than previous cycles.

Bears Are Out In Force

I have seen many bearish traders come out and talk about a drop to 58K or lower, and I’ll admit for a bit, I was one of them, but I am looking at things a bit differently now. As more and more people talk about shorting this resistance zone, the more and more the bigger players are going to be sucking up all those sell orders, which could eventually wreck the bears in a big way if the price moves the the bulls direction.

The social sentiment and the fact that EVERYONE in the crypto world likes to talk about their trades in a public forum is allowing these institutional traders just really stomp all over them, haha. In traditional markets, you don’t hear traders talking about their next moves in the markets with anyone other than the people they trade with. So when there are a bunch of loud bears on social media, the quiet bulls are just sitting and waiting on those price dips so they can catch a good deal and wreck some silly retail traders. You know who you are… LOL…

Distribution Zone Or Step Up

So the question I have for you is, do you think we are in a distribution zone where big traders are taking profits, or are we setting up market structure for the next step up in the bull run? It all depends on where we go from here. If the bulls can support this zone and eventually punch through this area of resistance, the it’s off to the races.

If we get get rejected, the bears could have been right the whole time and we could be heading back to some lower levels. Many people think the halving is going to be a bearish event. It may be in the very short term, but as the new institutional players really get a taste of the supply shock that the mining rewards being cut in half is going to cause, you are going to see a feeding frenzy in the markets like none other before it.

So, for me, yeah, I took some profits today, but I have my bull market minimum amount of BTC still in play, but now have a bit more dry powder to play with if, or really when we do break through resistance and start to head up. Until then it is sitting nicely in Aave earning some sweet interest while I am waiting for that time to come! It’s all about patience because as I am learning patience pays way more than rushing the markets. So what do you think? Is Bitcoin setting up for it’s next run up, or are the bears going to win?

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The information in this trade journal is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.


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